How We Calculate Draw Odds in Colorado

Colorado is a true preference point state for Elk , Deer and Antelope and thus the 1st choice applicants with the most preference points will draw the tags. What we show for these species is straight from the state provided draw reports. Our draw odds show the minimum number of preference points needed to be eligible for drawing any particular hunt. For instance, if all successful applicants for a hunt had 12 or more points, with 5 of 10 being successful for those that had 12 preference points, we would show 50% at 12 points.

Moose, sheep and mountain goat are different. Colorado uses a weighted point system when drawing for theses tags. According to Colorado Parks and Wildlife:

"Weighted preference increases your probability of drawing. It is calculated by converting your app number into a different, random app number, then dividing that new app number by the amount of weighted points you have, plus one. This generates another new app number. Apps are sorted by this new number from lowest to highest and low numbers for each hunt code are awarded licenses."

An important thing to note about the Colorado weighted point system is that you do not begin to accumulate weighted preference points until you have first accumulated 3 regular preference points. In other words, your chances of drawing a tag are effectively 0 for the first 3 years that you apply. In year 4 of applying you would have 3 preference points, with 0 weighted points (3+0). Going into year 5, you would have 3 preference points, with 1 weighted point (3+1).

In terms of increasing your random draw chances over time, Colorado's weighted point system is somewhere between traditional bonus point systems like Utah and squared bonus point systems like Nevada. Although at current demand/odds levels for rams, bull moose and billy's the weighted point system and a traditional bonus point system produce the same results.

When determining your odds for moose, sheep and goats in Colorado, we factor in the total number of weighted points for all applicants at each point level. The odds at every point level are slightly different, and in our list view we show odds based on the number of weighted points you have selected in the dropdown.